Tesla’s electrical car gross sales within the US are worse than what the media is reporting proper now. That’s partly as a result of Tesla is hiding its gross sales.
Right here’s extra correct information.
In the present day, you may see many headlines about Tesla’s US gross sales primarily based on Cox Automotive’s Q1 2025 US electrical car gross sales report.
The primary drawback with this report is that it’s a full estimate with regards to Tesla, the largest EV producer within the US.
Of all the main automakers, Tesla is the one one which doesn’t break down gross sales by area and even mannequin.
For comparability, right here’s a Ford US gross sales report vs a Tesla world gross sales report (its solely supply report):
As a result of Tesla is so opaque with its gross sales, analysts typically depend on experiences like Cox’s, that are additionally estimates.
The Cox report cited within the media at the moment claims that Tesla delivered 128,100 autos within the US in Q1 2025 – down 8.6% in comparison with Q1 2024.
That’s regardless of EV gross sales being up 10% general within the first quarter.
Right here’s the report:
| Model | Q1 2025 Gross sales | Q1 2024 Gross sales | YOY % Change |
| Acura | 4,813 | ||
| Audi | 5,905 | 5,714 | 3.3% |
| BMW | 13,538 | 10,712 | 26.4% |
| Cadillac | 7,972 | 5,800 | 37.4% |
| Chevrolet | 19,186 | 8,957 | 114.2% |
| Dodge | 1,947 | ||
| Ford | 22,550 | 20,223 | 11.5% |
| Genesis | 1,496 | 992 | 50.8% |
| GMC | 4,728 | 1,668 | 183.5% |
| Honda | 9,561 | ||
| Hyundai | 12,843 | 12,218 | 5.1% |
| Jaguar | 381 | 256 | 48.8% |
| Jeep | 2,595 | ||
| Kia | 8,656 | 11,401 | -24.1% |
| Lexus | 1,453 | 1,603 | -9.4% |
| Mercedes | 3,472 | 8,336 | -58.3% |
| Mini | 696 | 824 | -15.5% |
| Nissan | 6,471 | 5,284 | 22.5% |
| Porsche | 4,358 | 1,247 | 249.5% |
| Rivian | 8,553 | 13,588 | -37.1% |
| Subaru | 1,154 | 1,147 | 0.6% |
| Tesla | 128,100 | 140,187 | -8.6% |
| Toyota | 5,610 | 1,897 | 195.7% |
| Volvo | 2,718 | 996 | 172.9% |
| VW | 9,564 | 6,167 | 55.1% |
| Further EV Fashions | 5,930 | 6,764 | -12.3% |
| Whole (Estimates) | 294,250 | 265,981 | 10.6% |
Cox’s estimate seems to be fairly excessive. One of the best ways to determine Tesla deliveries within the US is to take deliveries primarily based on registration information in all different markets the place Tesla sells autos on this planet, that are fairly correct, and subtract that quantity from Tesla’s reported world deliveries.
For the primary quarter, Tesla reported 336,681 deliveries globally, and Tesla registrations in all markets besides the US and Canada totaled 212,024 autos (by way of TroyTeslike).
This might imply Tesla delivered about 124,657 autos within the US and Canada in Q1 2025.
That’s already about 3,500 fewer deliveries than Cox’s estimate, but it surely consists of Canadian deliveries, that are additionally laborious to estimate within the first quarter. It’s secure to imagine that they’re at about 5,000 models.
Which means that Tesla is down nearer to fifteen% than 8% within the US in Q1 2025.
Electrek’s Take
Sure, the Mannequin Y changeover actually affected Tesla’s efficiency within the US, but it surely’s clearly not the one issue at play.
Tesla ended the quarter with report stock not seen in years. The automaker has no backlog of orders for the brand new Mannequin Y. You may get one at the moment in lots of areas of the US.
I believe there are good causes to fret about Tesla’s demand within the US. The primary motive is the model harm brought on by Elon Musk, which principally occurred within the second half of the primary quarter.
The dearth of backlogs for brand spanking new Mannequin Y orders is regarding.
I consider deliveries can be up from Q1 this quarter, however they are going to be down from Q2 2024, and it’s extra probably that Tesla’s deliveries can be down for the complete yr 2025 regardless of most analysts nonetheless believing Tesla will nonetheless develop this yr.
