Throughout an odd publicly livestreamed “all-hands” assembly, Tesla CEO Elon Musk mentioned as soon as once more that he’s engaged on a “Grasp Plan Half 4” for the corporate, which is presently on half 3 of its grasp plan. However the issue is, even half 2 is just not but full.
Tesla’s “grasp plans” have guided the corporate for years, exhibiting a normal define of what course it plans to go.
The primary installment of Tesla’s grasp plan was posted in 2006, titled “The Secret Tesla Motors Grasp Plan (simply between you and me)” (it has since been deleted from the web site).
The weblog put up was a tongue in cheek checklist of Tesla’s priorities for the longer term, with 4 steps laid out:
- Construct sports activities automobile.
- Use that cash to construct an reasonably priced automobile.
- Use that cash to construct an much more reasonably priced automobile.
- Whereas doing above, additionally present zero-emission electrical energy technology choices.
Tesla managed to complete all of these steps, by releasing the Roadster, Mannequin S, and Mannequin 3. It additionally bought SolarCity and sells photo voltaic panel installations as we speak, so, job accomplished. And accomplished fairly effectively, contemplating Tesla was nothing in 2006 and hadn’t bought a single automobile, and is now a worldwide powerhouse altering the whole auto trade.
Ten years after that unique weblog put up, the “plan” was up to date in 2016 with “Grasp Plan, Half Deux” (which has additionally since been deleted from the web site). That plan was summarized as:
- Create beautiful photo voltaic roofs with seamlessly built-in battery storage
- Increase the electrical automobile product line to deal with all main segments
- Develop a self-driving functionality that’s 10X safer than guide through huge fleet studying
- Allow your automobile to generate profits for you while you aren’t utilizing it
This plan has not been fairly as profitable as the unique secret grasp plan.
A progress examine on grasp plan half 2
First, Tesla’s “photo voltaic roof” enterprise has turned extra into the corporate offering photo voltaic panel programs to impartial installers. These are built-in effectively by software program with Tesla’s Powerwall system (and extra options like Digital Energy Crops, Storm Watch, and so forth). However Tesla’s photo voltaic roof venture didn’t fairly prove as deliberate – it’s a single design as an alternative of the 4 designs initially promised, and deployment of that design was… rocky, to say the least.
Second, Tesla has expanded its product line to cowl two (or three) extra segments: mid-size SUVs, with the Mannequin Y; one thing kinda sorta approximating a truck, with the Cybertruck; and heavy trucking, with the Tesla Semi.
These are the “main” segments it mentioned it could deal with within the weblog put up, so that they get partial credit score there – besides that the Semi remains to be but to succeed in any important quantity numbers, and Tesla has not launched a promised “excessive passenger-density city transport” (the closest factor there’s the recently-announced Robovan, which is completely nowhere close to manufacturing).
Third, Tesla has not efficiently deployed self-driving functionality that’s 10X safer, even by its personal numbers. Tesla’s Autopilot Security Report, which the corporate solely often releases, says that Autopilot is a little more than 5X safer than a human – however this comes with the caveat that the system will usually spend extra time activated in conditions the place it’s extra succesful, and drivers will select to take over once they suppose the system isn’t going to have the ability to do one thing.
Tesla doesn’t publicize knowledge on how a lot safer FSD is than human drivers, quite referring to “miles between important disengagement” and different transferring goalposts.
So these are three steps which haven’t actually gotten completed, however, we are able to maybe give some credit score for motion within the course of every of them.
The fourth step, nonetheless, has merely not occurred. This referred to an thought which on the time was known as “Tesla Community,” which was imagined to be a ride-hailing app that Tesla homeowners might ship their vehicles out to generate profits with – and the supply of Musk’s “appreciating asset” feedback.
Not solely has that not occurred, however even autonomy has not occurred. Tesla FSD remains to be stage 2, and whereas it claims it should have stage 4 succesful automobiles this 12 months in Austin, we’ve but to see that.
So, partial credit score for grasp plan half 2, however we’re nonetheless in progress.
Half 3 goes in one other course, is big in scope
After that, Tesla launched Grasp Plan Half 3 in 2023, a completely completely different form of doc than the final two. As a substitute of simply being a snarky weblog put up, this was a 40-page white paper with calculations exhibiting that the world might transition to renewable vitality and clear up local weather change with the sources and expertise obtainable to us as we speak.
It’s an attention-grabbing learn, and regardless of the bizarre analogues to Musk’s private beliefs about inhabitants progress, the calculations, whereas optimistic and self-serving for an EV/sustainable tech firm, do make sense. It lays out the case about find out how to transition the whole world to sustainability, and I believe it does so fairly persuasively. I’ve really useful it to many as a technique to lay out the potential inexperienced transition.
…However, clearly, that has not occurred but both.
Musk drops hints at Tesla Grasp Plan 4
Then, with two plans nonetheless in progress, and solely a bit greater than a 12 months after unveiling the third half, Musk introduced final June that he’s “engaged on Tesla Grasp Plan 4.”
9 months later, we’ve but to listen to extra particulars about that concept, however as we speak throughout his presentation, he did refer again to it once more.
Immediately, he was requested a query by one of many… uh… workers? assembled for his… uh… all-hands assembly/inventory pumping livestream?, and the query went thusly (the query was onerous to listen to, so right here’s the meat of it):
“What section of the plan are we in and the way lengthy will it go?”
To which Musk responded:
“We’re at section 3 of the grasp plan, since grasp plan 1 and a couple of have been accomplished. Now, grasp plan half 3 is a really lengthy grasp plan, as a result of it’s mainly making all vitality on earth sustainable. And I really have to complement it with the, form of, ‘abundance for all.’ Perhaps thats grasp plan 4. I’ve kinda described grasp plan 4 basically. Which is autonomous vehicles, autonomous humanoid robots, mix that with photo voltaic and battery storage, and I believe the longer term’s gonna be unimaginable.”
So, we now have an thought of what Musk thinks grasp plan half 4 shall be, a minimum of, which is analogous to what Electrek’s Fred Lambert predicted it could be again in June: robots and self-driving.
Electrek’s Take
However what about them? We all know that is what Musk has been speaking about just lately, and loads of these concepts haven’t actually turned out – a minimum of not but.
To start with, we already know concerning the photo voltaic and battery storage, and the autonomous vehicles. These had been in earlier elements of the grasp plan, and Musk has been promising them subsequent 12 months for ten years, so there’s nothing new there.
Specifically, the autonomous automobile reaches all the best way again to half 2, initiated in 2016, and remains to be incomplete – regardless of Musk’s incorrect assertion as we speak saying that it has been accomplished. This both suggests he doesn’t know what’s going on along with his firm, or he’s mendacity. Neither is a superb choice.
And robots, the one new portion of the proposed grasp plan half 4, are positively not fairly what they’re cracked as much as be – but, a minimum of. However that’s the purpose of a grasp plan, to begin heading in that course, to not already be there – so, honest sufficient.
However are Musk’s predictions about robotics lifelike?
Musk has additionally acknowledged that humanoid robots shall be value $20-30 trillion to Tesla’s market cap, as a result of everybody on this planet may have two private robots. This appears unlikely on its face, however particularly so when Musk says that AGI – Synthetic Common Intelligence, the place a single laptop is able to undertaking all the identical duties as a human – is coming this 12 months.
Past AGI, Musk has claimed that Tesla will change the world in a number of different methods this 12 months, however thats fairly a packed launch schedule given Tesla’s latest historical past (and its management’s present distractions and anti-sustainability actions). Musk is thought for overpromising, and this looks like one other instance of such.
The concept Tesla, a automobile firm, will someway be the primary on this planet to perform AGI, scaling humanoid robots to the purpose the place everybody on this planet can have two, alongside all the pieces else, and on such a brief timeline, appears unlikely.
It appears maybe just a little extra doubtless that this assembly, and a possible half 4 of the plan, are each an try to reframe the present dialog about Tesla, which is kind of unfavorable as gross sales drop drastically amid Musk’s meddling in anti-sustainability and white supremacist politics.
Cost your electrical automobile at residence utilizing rooftop photo voltaic panels. Discover a dependable and competitively priced photo voltaic installer close to you on EnergySage, free of charge. They’ve pre-vetted installers competing for your corporation, guaranteeing high-quality options and 20-30% financial savings. It’s free, with no gross sales calls till you select an installer. Evaluate personalised photo voltaic quotes on-line and obtain steerage from unbiased Power Advisers. Get began right here. – advert*
