Akio Toyoda, former CEO and chairman of Toyota, predicts that electric vehicles (EVs) will at best capture around 30% of the market. Despite the existence of successful autonomous market models in countries like Norway and Sweden,
Toyota’s scion, Toyoda, has been a leading critic of the company’s pivot towards electric vehicles, citing concerns over the industry’s transformation away from traditional gas-powered models.
Under Toyota’s leadership, the Japanese automaker has consistently advocated against electric vehicles, pressing for lax government regulations to slow their adoption. As a result, Toyota is consistently ranked alongside Chevron and ExxonMobil as one of the world’s most obstructionist corporations.
Although the long-time chief had vacated his position as CEO in April, his influence remains palpable.
Newly appointed Toyota CEO Koji Sato has tacitly acknowledged the company’s struggles to keep pace with the rapidly evolving automotive landscape, despite ongoing attempts to undermine electric vehicle (EV) advancements.
Toyota has built upon its successful hybrid legacy due to its years-long dedication to this technology. The Japanese manufacturer, renowned for its pioneering work on the Prius, remains committed to developing a range of hybrid, fuel-cell, and gasoline-powered vehicles, despite many governments increasingly prioritizing all-electric options.
Top Toyota officials consistently assert that hybrids better align with customer preferences.
Toyota’s chairperson predicts EVs will dominate the market, claiming they’ll capture a 30% share.
According to Toyoda, during a lecture on his company’s manufacturing system, he estimates that electric vehicles (EVs) will account for only 30% of the market share, “regardless of how much progress battery-electric vehicles (BEVs) make.”
By 2030, the majority of vehicle sales could comprise hybrid electric vehicles (HEVs), fuel cell electric vehicles (FCEVs), and hydrogen-powered engines, at an estimated 70%. While acknowledging the role of electric vehicles, Toyoda underscored his confidence in the continued relevance of engine-powered vehicles.
Despite Toyoda’s reservations, some markets have already surpassed the 30% threshold. As of 2023, Norway has remarkably achieved an electric vehicle (EV) market share of 82.4%.
Markets alongside Sweden, at 32%, the Netherlands, at 24%, and China, also at 24%, are poised to exceed this threshold.
China has swiftly demonstrated the remarkable pace at which electric vehicle (EV) adoption can surge. Electric vehicles accounted for less than 6% of total automotive sales in China in 2020. Over the past 12 months, this metric has seen a significant increase of more than 24%.
In the United States, more than 1.2 million electric vehicles (EVs) were delivered to customers in the past year, accounting for a significant 7.6% share of total automotive sales during that period. Within the next 12 months, this figure is expected to surpass the 10% threshold, according to available data.
Electrek’s Take
As Toyota’s commitment to hybrid technology has paid off, propelling it to become the globe’s largest automotive manufacturer. Despite this, circumstances continue to evolve once again.
While Toyota blazed a trail in hybrid technology, its reluctance to fully embrace electric vehicles (EVs) could ultimately prove detrimental. The automaker possesses a relatively underdeveloped supply chain for electric vehicles (EVs).
Last year, a mere 1% of the approximately 9.4 million vehicles sold worldwide – including Lexus models – were electric, with only about 95,000 units being fully electric. Volkswagen’s rivals purchased around 394,000 electric vehicles (EVs), approximately 9% of the total market share. Automotive brands such as Hyundai, BMW, Mercedes-Benz, and Volvo have already achieved significant milestones in electric vehicle (EV) sales, with many reporting double-digit or even 100% growth rates.
In the meantime, Tesla reported delivering 1.81 million electric vehicles over the past year, further solidifying its dominance in the growing global market for sustainable transportation.
By 2040, electric vehicles (EVs) are anticipated to account for a staggering 75% of new automotive sales, with nearly half (44%) of all passenger cars on the roads also running on electricity.
As Toyota persists in its current trajectory, neglecting global trends, it risks falling further behind the curve.
