Despite their current momentum, plug-in hybrids may plateau soon, as electric vehicles (EVs) continue to gain traction and attention from consumers and investors alike, according to Bloomberg New Energy Finance’s predictions.
Gross sales of plug-in hybrids have experienced significant growth recently, largely driven by increased recognition in the Chinese market, with BloombergNEF (BNEF) now forecasting that they will surpass earlier predictions and capture a larger share of the market at its peak. Despite this, it is likely that Tesla will still retain a significant market share in the global automotive market by 2030, with BNEF forecasting that sales will decline thereafter as battery prices continue to fall and electric vehicles (EVs) become increasingly affordable.
2025 Kia Sorento plug-in hybrid
According to the US Department of Energy, plug-in hybrid vehicle sales reached an all-time high within the United States in 2023. With over 250,000 units sold, pre-owned vehicles accounted for roughly 60% of total new-car retail sales. As plug-in hybrids missed the federal EV tax credit score for many models this year, and prices were already generally less competitive compared to hybrids in 2023, it’s natural to question whether this trend will continue?
After discarding expertise it pioneered in the Chevrolet Volt, General Motors is set to exit its U.S. Line up a more competitive offering in response to the automaker’s perception of a softening demand for electric vehicles. Toyota intends to extend the electric range of its plug-in hybrids up to 120 miles, potentially meeting stricter California emissions standards requiring plug-in hybrids with a minimum 50-mile electric range starting from the 2026 model year.
According to Bloomberg New Energy Finance (BNEF), plug-in hybrid powertrains are currently the most expensive option for consumers in the United States. In contrast, prices for these vehicles have decreased significantly in China over the past five years, now rivaling those of standard internal-combustion cars. Chinese plug-in hybrids have seen significant improvements in electric range and charging speed, rendering them increasingly viable as electric vehicles, according to a recent report.
However, BNEF still queries whether plug-in hybrids are genuinely driven primarily by electricity. According to a decade-long evaluation, a significant proportion of plug-in hybrid vehicles – ranging from 26% to 54% – were driven in electric mode, with some of the largest studies involving hundreds of thousands of cars in China, as reported by BNEF. Numerous studies have consistently demonstrated that plug-in hybrid vehicles often fall short of their expected charging rates, casting doubt on the accuracy of emissions effectiveness scores based on these assumptions—a crucial issue for regulatory bodies to address.
