Elon Musk is hyping an upcoming Tesla ‘Full Self-Driving’ (FSD) replace by claiming that it’s going to have “much less nag” – a far cry from its long-unfulfilled promise of unsupervised self-driving.
For the previous few weeks, Tesla CEO Elon Musk has been hyping a brand new FSD replace that he claims will embrace “10x larger parameters.”
We already reported how FSD house owners ought to handle their expectations primarily based on the final time Musk claimed a major improve in parameter rely.
Aside from the rise in parameter rely and the timing for the “finish of September”, the CEO didn’t elaborate a lot on the replace.
He once more commented on it this weekend:
The FSD launch in about 6 weeks can be a dramatic acquire with a 10X larger parameter rely and plenty of different enhancements. It’s going via coaching & testing now.
However this time he additionally added that the replace ought to end in “a lot much less nag”:
As soon as we affirm real-world security of FSD 14, which we predict can be superb, the automotive will nag you a lot much less.
“Nag” is what some folks seek advice from because the alerts FSD offers drivers to remain attentive to the highway.
Tesla requires all drivers to stay attentive to the highway when utilizing Autopilot or Full Self-Driving, and they’re liable for any errors made by the automobile.
Musk has repeatedly promised that Full Self-Driving would finally develop into unsupervised, however each time he shared a timeline, Tesla didn’t ship.
Electrek’s Take
We’re speaking about 6 weeks – which means the top of September, which additionally occurs to be the top of the third quarter.
Tesla will launch the replace simply in time to justify recognizing some deferred income put aside from promoting its Full Self-Driving package deal.
“Much less nag” means nothing. 99% of the worth of FSD is in unsupervised operation with accountability on Tesla. That’s the place the worth lies, and we’re nonetheless removed from that.
Musk is now speaking about FSD having “much less nag” by the top of September. After which what? We must always count on Tesla to go from that to taking accountability for the system in buyer vehicles by the top of the 12 months? Please.
The very best information accessible factors to Tesla attaining about 400-500 miles between essential disengagements and the final time Tesla launched an enormous parameter improve it resulted in roughly a 2x enchancment.
At 800-1,000 miles between disengagement, Tesla would nonetheless be years away from unsupervised self-driving in buyer autos.
Look, I’ve FSD. I’m incentivized for Tesla to ship right here. I wish to imagine, however to take action, I can solely depend on the newest in a protracted sequence of unfulfilled guarantees from a recognized liar versus precise information pointing the opposite method.
If Tesla sticks to this timeline, it will have been virtually a 12 months between v13 and v14, and primarily based on earlier enhancements, I count on a 2 to 3x enchancment in miles between disengagements.
On the naked minimal, Tesla would want a 50x enchancment from there to ship unsupervised self-driving in shopper autos and ideally greater than 200x.
On the present tempo of updates, we’re years away from that.
