Elon Musk is teasing a brand new Tesla ‘Full Self-Driving Supervised’ (FSD) replace with “10x enhancements”, however historic efficiency in comparison with Musk’s bulletins means that it’s safer to handle your expectations.
In a brand new X put up final evening, Musk is teasing an upcoming new FSD replace that may embrace a “10x improve in parameters”:
Tesla is coaching a brand new FSD mannequin with ~10X params and a giant enchancment to video compression loss. Most likely prepared for public launch finish of subsequent month if testing goes nicely.
That is the second time that Musk is teasing an replace to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving program this yr.
The model of FSD in client autos hasn’t improved all yr, as Tesla has centered its efforts on its ‘Robotaxi’ service in Austin.
After launching FSD v13 on HW4 autos late final yr, the system has not proven significant enchancment primarily based on crowdsourced neighborhood knowledge.
In reality, it seems to be deteriorating.
With 16,000 miles on the primary 5 level updates on FSD v13, individuals had been touring on common 510 miles between important disengagements (left), and now with the final 4 level updates, persons are touring 431 miles between important disengagements (proper):
Though the discrepancy is also defined just by the newest knowledge being extra correct with extra mileage.
Now, Tesla shareholders are hoping that the lag in enchancment shall be mitigated by Tesla utilizing what it has discovered by way of its deployment of its supervised robotaxi service in Austin to launch a considerably improved FSD replace.
In June, Musk first teased this replace, and on the time, he stated that it could embrace a “4x improve in parameters” and would come “within the subsequent few months.”
Now, he appears to bonify the rise in parameters to “10x” and adjusts the timeline to the tip of September.
Nevertheless, earlier than getting excited, it’s necessary to recollect the final time Musk promised a rise in efficiency by way of a rise in parameters.
The CEO stated that FSD v12.5 on HW4 was a “5x improve in parameters” and that was fairly disappointing.
FSD v12.5 on HW4 (left) solely introduced a 22% improve in miles between important disengagement in comparison with v12.3 (proper):
In reality, the miles between important disengagements plummeted with different v12.5 level updates, and it in the end ended at 184 miles between important disengagements, considerably under v12.3:
Subsequently, it’s onerous to get too excited a couple of new “10 improve in parameters” when that’s what occurred the final time Musk known as for it.
Electrek’s Take
Let’s be optimistic right here and assume a 2x enchancment in miles between important disengagements to any extent further.
FSD on HW4 would nonetheless solely be at about 900 miles between important disengagements, which is nowhere close to the place you might want to be for an unsupervised self-driving system.
At this enchancment charge, Tesla would nonetheless want 5-10 years to get near an unsupervised driving system and that’s whereas it’s reaching the bounds of its HW4 system. It’s turning into pretty clear that HW4 goes the way in which of HW3: obsolescence.
Tesla FSD could be spectacular if it had been offered as what it’s: a degree 3 driver help system. It’s finest on the market.
However it must be in contrast in opposition to what it’s offered as: a self-driving system that may allow unsupervised autonomy.
Compared to that, it’s horrible.
