Tesla (TSLA) will launch its Q2 2025 monetary outcomes on Wednesday, July 31, after the market closes. As normal, a convention name and Q&A with Tesla’s administration are scheduled after the outcomes.
Right here, we’ll have a look at what the road and retail buyers anticipate for the quarterly outcomes.
Tesla Q2 2025 deliveries and power deployment
CEO Elon Musk and his loyal shareholders usually declare that Tesla is now an AI/Robotics firm. Nonetheless, the reality is that the corporate’s automotive enterprise continues to drive the overwhelming majority of its monetary efficiency.
Tesla’s income stays tied primarily to the variety of autos it delivers.
Earlier this month, Tesla disclosed its Q2 2025 car manufacturing and deliveries:
| Manufacturing | Deliveries | Topic to working lease accounting | |
| Mannequin 3/Y | 396,835 | 373,728 | 2% |
| Different Fashions | 13,409 | 10,394 | 7% |
| Complete | 410,244 | 384,122 | 2% |
The deliveries got here in proper on expectation, which is about 13.5% down from the identical interval final yr.
Tesla additionally produced 25,000 autos greater than it delivered, however that received’t have an effect on its financials this quarter because the automaker solely accounts for delivered autos in its price of revenues.
The corporate additionally disclosed having deployed 9.6 GWh of power storage in the course of the quarter – roughly the identical as the identical interval final yr.
Tesla Q2 2025 income
For income, analysts typically have a fairly good concept of what to anticipate, due to the supply numbers and now the power storage deployment knowledge.
The Wall Avenue consensus for this quarter is $22.279 billion, and Estimize, the monetary estimate crowdsourcing web site, predicts a barely decrease income of $22.202 billion.
Listed here are the predictions for Tesla’s income over the previous two years, with Estimize predictions in blue, Wall Avenue consensus in grey, and precise outcomes are in inexperienced:
This outcome could be considerably decrease than the $25 billion in income that Tesla delivered throughout the identical interval in 2024.
It’s price nothing that during the last 3 quarters, Tesla’s income got here below expectations.
Tesla Q2 2025 earnings
Tesla claims to persistently try for marginal profitability each quarter, because it invests the vast majority of its funds in development, however its development has disappeared from its automotive enterprise during the last yr, and its gross margin goes in the identical route.
Analysts try to estimate Tesla’s gross margin with the decrease deliveries and better reductions to determine its precise earnings per share.
For Q2 2025, the Wall Avenue consensus is a acquire of $0.40 per share and Estimize’s crowdsourced prediction is somewhat decrease at $0.39.
Listed here are the earnings per share during the last two years, the place Estimize predictions are in blue, Wall Avenue consensus is in grey, and precise outcomes are in inexperienced:
If Tesla delivers on expectations, it might be a major drop in earnings from $0.52 per share in Q2 2024.
Different expectations for the TSLA shareholder’s letter, analyst name, and particular ‘firm replace’
In Q1, Tesla blamed its poor efficiency on the Mannequin Y changeover. It doesn’t have this excuse within the second quarter.
CEO Elon Musk has been extraordinarily deceptive to shareholders about Tesla’s demand state of affairs. He was caught straight up mendacity about it final quarter.
However I anticipate Musk to have Tesla shareholders deal with future income prospects from robotaxi and robots, one thing he has been prosming for years with none actual proof that Tesla will lead any of these sectors.
Tesla may also take questions from retail shareholders based mostly on the preferred ones on Say. Listed here are the highest 5 questions and my ideas on them:
- Are you able to give us some perception how robotaxis have been performing to this point and what price you anticipate to increase when it comes to autos, geofence, cities, and supervisors?
- Tesla has by no means launched publicly any knowledge about its self-driving efforts and it went out of its solution to keep away from reporting it to authorities and the general public. I anticipate nothing right here aside from “we’re rising as quick as regulators permit it”, which is a lie. Tesla nonetheless makes use of security supervisors and mapping, that are the limiting elements.
- Are you able to present an replace on the event and manufacturing timeline for Tesla’s extra inexpensive fashions? How will these fashions steadiness price discount with profitability, and what influence do you anticipate on demand within the present financial local weather?
- Tesla stated that these cheaper fashions would come within the first half of 2025, however they didn’t. As we now have beforehand talked about, they’re mainly stripped down variations of the Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y, permitting Tesla to cut back the bottom value. We anticipate them to launch after the federal tax credit score to finish on the finish of Q3.
- What are the important thing technical and regulatory hurdles nonetheless remaining for unsupervised FSD to be out there for private use? Timeline?
- Tesla hasn’t solved self-driving and it’s not coming to shopper autos any time quickly.
- What particular manufacturing unit duties is Optimus at the moment performing, and what’s the anticipated timeline for scaling manufacturing to allow exterior gross sales? How does Tesla envision Optimus contributing to income within the subsequent 2–3 years?
- When do you anticipate buyer autos to obtain unsupervised FSD?
- He’s going to say “subsequent yr” like he has been saying yearly for the final 6 years and once more, it received’t occur.
Something to distract from the truth that Tesla may begin to change into unprofitable as quickly as Q1 2026.
Tesla’s earnings have been taking place during the last 2 years and the pattern is evident. Moreover, the removing of the federal tax credit score for EVs within the US, Tesla’s healthiest massive market, and most ZEV credit going away are accelerating the pattern in This autumn 2025 and Q1 2026.
Tune in with Electrek after market shut at present to get all the most recent information from Tesla’s earnings, convention name, and now additionally an obvious “firm replace.”
