Tesla’s huge supply miss means the automaker has larger model points than anticipated within the US, and the Cybertruck is totally unsellable.
It’s worse than anybody anticipated.
Tesla delivered about 50,000 fewer autos in Q1 2025 in comparison with Q1 2024.
The outcomes had been additionally a lot decrease than expectations for the quarter. Analysts anticipated roughly steady deliveries in China and the US, whereas they noticed Tesla being down about 30,000 items in Europe.
With common registration information out there in Europe and China, we have now fairly good visibility in these markets. Analysts had been proper, with Tesla barely up for the quarter in China and down about 30,000 items in Europe, with some nations having but to report.
Because of this the disappointing outcomes are coming from the US.
Tesla probably delivered 20,000 fewer items within the US this quarter than it did final 12 months. The automaker is blaming that on the Mannequin Y changeover, which is definitely partly true, however there’s extra occurring.
In Q1 2024, Tesla went by the Mannequin 3 changeover, and Tesla was capable of ship its new Mannequin Y on the identical day as a brand new order on the finish of March within the US. This might level to broader demand points for Tesla within the US.
Nevertheless, the automaker continues to be promoting solely the Lengthy Vary AWD Launch Version model of the brand new Mannequin Y within the US. The extra important demand check will likely be this quarter and Q3 when Tesla begins promoting the cheaper variations and exhausts its backlog of demand from the previous few months.
Tesla Cybertruck is lifeless weight
Tesla is tremendous opaque about its automobile deliveries. The automaker refuses to interrupt down deliveries per mannequin, making it tougher to trace the well being of every mannequin.
It bundles Mannequin 3 and Mannequin Y collectively, and all different fashions in a single class:
| Manufacturing | Deliveries | Topic to working lease accounting | |
| Mannequin 3/Y | 345,454 | 323,800 | 4% |
| Different Fashions | 17,161 | 12,881 | 7% |
| Whole | 362,615 | 336,681 | 4% |
The “different fashions” class contains Mannequin S, Mannequin X, Cybertruck, and Tesla Semi deliveries.
These outcomes with simply 12,881 “different mannequin” deliveries are significantly disappointing for Tesla.
For comparability, it’s down 24% in comparison with Q1 2024 when Tesla was nonetheless ramping up Cybertruck manufacturing. It’s additionally down 44% in comparison with This autumn 2024 when the class nearly solely consisted of Mannequin S and Mannequin X deliveries.
This might level to Tesla delivering between 5,000-8,000 Cybertrucks in Q1 2025 – relying on Mannequin S/X supply efficiency, that are additionally anticipated to be down. It might mark a 3rd quarter in a row of gross sales decline for the electrical pickup truck, just a bit over a 12 months into manufacturing.
Moreover, the decrease Cybertruck deliveries come as Tesla launched new incentives to promote the truck in 2025 and even gained entry to the $7,500 federal tax credit score for electrical autos.
Tesla is now having points promoting Cybertrucks at a price of 40,000 per 12 months, when Tesla ready manufacturing for 250,000 items per 12 months, and CEO Elon Musk stated he might see Tesla reaching 500,000 items per 12 months.
We reported yesterday that Tesla is sitting on over $200 million of Cybertruck stock within the US.
Electrek’s Take
These are disastrous outcomes, however the market nonetheless doesn’t perceive them. You’ll be able to’t blame all the things on the Mannequin Y changeover. Sure, it has an impression, however folks neglect that across the identical time final 12 months, Tesla was additionally going by the Mannequin 3 changeover, and now a 12 months later, Mannequin 3 is ramped up and gross sales are down.
This could sound the alert.
Cybertruck is an entire dud by way of quantity, even with incentives.
Now, Tesla’s solely hope is within the non-Launch Version variations of the Mannequin Y, which I anticipate Tesla to launch within the subsequent few days.
They are going to assist, there’s little question, however I feel folks want to contemplate extra severely the impression of Tesla’s model issues resulting from Elon Musk.
In China, Tesla already has these fashions out there, and it has already needed to introduce 0% financing to promote them. That’s the equal of a $2,000 low cost.
It’s going to be attention-grabbing to see how lengthy after Tesla introduces these fashions within the US, it is going to additionally must introduce 0% financing. It’s going to give us a good suggestion of how well-liked is the Mannequin Y refresh in Tesla’s dwelling market.
The automaker wants it to be well-liked as a result of Europe is a dying marketplace for Tesla, and it’s being squeezed out of China by competitors.
